• Abstract

    EVIDENCE FOR THE INTERTEMPORAL CURRENT ACCOUNT IN BRAZIL AND ANALYSIS OF THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THEORETICAL AND OBSERVED CURRENT ACCOUNT

    DOI 10.14210/alcance.v29n1(Jan/Abr).p53-69
    Published date: 24/02/2022
    Objective: Obtain evidence of what contributed to the gap between the observed and theoretical current accounts of the intertemporal current account model, bearing in mind the Brazilian’s model show that is not sufficient to explain the observed movements and is not compatible with the theoretical hypothesis of smoothing consumption over time, through the acquisition and sale of assets in the international financial market. Methodological Procedures: Using the methodology proposed by Huang (2010), we investigate the inclusion of the variables world real interest rate and terms of trade in the basic model for the Brazilian case between 1970 and 2010. Even though the results are favorable to the inclusion of those variables, the theoretical current account does not fully adjust to the observed one, a possible result to be found in the literature on the subject. To move forward in the analysis, the VAR method is combined with the QCA to complement the analysis and have evidence of what could have contributed for the gap between the observed and theoretical current accounts, between 1980-2002. Results: The specific and consistent configurations obtained provide evidence that the distance between accounts occurred in a scenario of greater exchange, by the private sector, of differentiated assets for future production. Originality: The QCA method is used to complement the analysis of the intertemporal current account model. Despite the time lag of the data under study, the methodological strategy of combining the methods allows for specific interactions between variables that are not in the model but are pointed out as possible explanations for the result obtained.
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